Independent business valuation · Security services

You've Had an Offer for Your Security Business. Is It Fair?

An offer letter gives you a headline price. It does not say how much of that price survives the deductions at completion, or whether the buyer valued your guarding contracts and your monitoring book as though they were the same thing. An independent valuation answers both in two working days, before you reply.

Owners of guarding companies and alarm, CCTV and access control installers tend to contact us at a handful of moments. A national group has rung about buying the monitoring book, or a private equity-backed consolidator wants the whole company. Sometimes a co-founder wants to retire and the other has to buy them out at a figure both can live with, or the owner is wondering whether the business will fund their own exit in five years.

Whichever it is, the first number anyone puts forward comes from a party with a reason to choose it. You are usually the only person at the table without a valuation of your own.

Email Mark for a free discovery call See what a valuation report contains

The stakes

What finding out late costs

An illustrative security company with £9.0m turnover, mostly manned guarding for retail and commercial sites, plus a smaller alarm and CCTV maintenance book. Reported EBITDA was £1.05m. The owner had heard that security businesses sell for six times EBITDA and expected about £6.3m. The company and every figure are fictional.

Illustrative figures, £000
Reported EBITDA	1,050
Holiday pay on regular overtime, under-accrued in past years, costed going forward	(60)
April 2026 National Living Wage rise on two fixed-price contracts with no pass-through clause	(45)
Owner salary raised to a market-rate managing director	(55)
One-off employment tribunal settlement added back	25
Maintainable EBITDA	915
Enterprise value at an illustrative 5.0 times	4,575
Cash at completion	600
Invoice finance facility drawn against facilities management debtors	(420)
Vehicle finance on patrol and engineer vans	(180)
Back holiday pay owed to officers, treated as debt	(140)
Working capital below the normal level	(90)
Equity value to the owner	4,345

Most of the gap between £6.3m and £4.3m sits in places owners rarely look. The holiday pay shortfall cut earnings and then came off the price a second time as money owed to staff. The invoice finance facility that funded slow-paying facilities management customers was counted as debt. The 5.0 times multiple is for illustration only. A real valuation sets the multiple from the evidence in your business and comparable transactions.

The numbers you have been given

Why the numbers you have been given are not neutral

Every valuation an owner hears before a sale comes from someone with a stake in the answer.

The buyer

wants to pay as little as you will accept. Their first figure is an opening position, and their advisers know where security businesses get discounted far better than you do.

A broker

competing for your instruction has a reason to quote high. A large number wins the mandate. Whether the market agrees comes out months later, usually in due diligence.

Your accountant

knows your numbers better than anyone, but may never have taken a business through a sale or sat across from a buyer's due diligence team.

None of them is acting in bad faith. Each one is answering a different question from the one you are asking, which is what the business is worth to a buyer today and how much of that reaches you.

Independence

Why our valuation is independent

When we value your business, we have no reason to push the number up or down. The fee is fixed and agreed before any work starts, and it is the same whatever the number turns out to be. You are not signing up to a sale, and nothing in the engagement commits you to anything further.

The report is yours. Show it to a buyer, your bank, your accountant or your family. Every figure in it traces back to one of three valuation methods, with each adjustment explained in the Excel model you receive alongside it.

Owners rarely go on to ask us to sell their business after a valuation, although it has happened. Most come to us for the reason this page exists. They want a number they can trust before someone else tells them what it is.

Who does the work

Who does the work, and what a valuation finds

Mark Ross Roberts FMVA CBCA carries out every valuation himself, with 30 years on the deal side of UK mid-market transactions. The largest corporate group he has negotiated against had a turnover of £3.2bn.

96%
In 96% of completed Achieve mandates, the price agreed at heads of terms is the price paid at completion.
Source: Achieve Corporation mandate records

The two summaries below show the kind of finding a valuation produces. They are examples written for this page, not records of real mandates, and they carry that label on the website until real anonymised deals replace them.

Illustrative example

Fire and security systems integrator, South East

Turnover: £4m to £6m
Buyer: A national fire and security group building regional density
What the valuation found: The owner treated every pound of profit alike. Installation projects produced more than half of it and varied sharply from year to year, while the maintenance and monitoring contracts renewed steadily. Several of those contracts were on rolling monthly terms with nothing signed on assignment. The valuation separated the two income streams and showed which contracts a buyer could rely on after completion.
Outcome: The owner put written terms in place on the larger maintenance contracts before heads of terms, and the price agreed was the price paid at completion.

Illustrative example

Manned guarding contractor, Yorkshire

Turnover: £10m to £15m
Buyer: A private equity-backed security services group
What the valuation found: Two of the three largest contracts were held through facilities management companies on long payment terms, funded by invoice finance. Only one contract allowed National Living Wage rises to be passed on, and holiday pay had been calculated on basic hours alone. The valuation quantified the holiday pay exposure and the margin squeeze on each contract at the next wage rise.
Outcome: The owner settled the holiday pay position and renegotiated pass-through terms on one contract before the buyer's due diligence began, so neither became a price reduction or an indemnity claim.

Sector insight

What buyers pay for in security services

Trade buyers and private equity pay more for earnings they expect to repeat. In security that means contracted revenue that survives the owner leaving, and a buyer's team can tell within a day whether yours does.

Recurring monitoring and maintenance revenue. Contracts to monitor alarms and CCTV, and to service systems your engineers installed, renew year after year and need little selling. Buyers usually value that income above installation work, which has to be won again every month.
Approvals the police and insurers recognise. NSI's guidance states that installers holding NSI Gold or Silver approval are recognised by the police, and that forces in England, Wales and Northern Ireland only register and respond to alarm systems meeting National Police Chiefs' Council requirements (NSI, 2026). A competitor without that approval cannot offer police response to its clients.
SIA Approved Contractor status that is current and clean. The SIA's 2024-25 annual report records 748 approved contractors on the register at 31 March 2025, and 94% of the top 65 UK security companies held the accreditation (SIA, Annual Report and Accounts 2024-25). Larger buyers and many public sector clients expect it, so a lapse or a run of improvement notices costs you buyers.
Contracts that let wage rises through. Guarding margins depend on whether the contract allows the charge rate to move when the National Living Wage does. A book where most contracts carry that clause is worth more than one where every April eats into margin.
Managers who hold the client relationships. Account managers and an operations manager whom clients call first, with a control room that runs without the owner answering the out-of-hours phone.

What pulls the value down

Security buyers have been caught by the same problems many times over, so they price them in early.

A few large contracts carrying the business. Guarding contracts are retendered, often on short notice periods. Where one or two clients dominate turnover, buyers discount the price or defer part of it until those contracts are shown to renew.
Wage costs that cannot be passed on. The National Living Wage rose 4.1% to £12.71 an hour on 1 April 2026 (GOV.UK, 2026), and employer National Insurance rose from 13.8% to 15% from 6 April 2025, with the threshold cut from £9,100 to £5,000 a year (GOV.UK, 2024). Fixed-price guarding contracts written before those changes show up as falling margin, and buyers read every contract for a pass-through clause.
Holiday pay and overtime liabilities. Officers who work regular overtime are owed holiday pay that reflects it. If the business has paid holiday on basic hours only, a buyer treats the back pay as debt and the corrected cost as a cut to future earnings.
The owner holds the key accounts. If facilities managers and site clients deal with the owner personally, a buyer assumes part of that revenue leaves with them.
Monitoring income with weak paperwork. Rolling monthly arrangements, contracts with no assignment clause, or alarm connections that sit with a third-party receiving centre on the receiving centre's own terms all reduce what a buyer will pay for recurring revenue.

Most of these can be fixed, or at least evidenced, given twelve months' notice. A valuation done early shows which ones apply to your business and roughly what each is costing you in price.

Method

How we value a security services business, and why the multiple comes last

Anyone can take a year's EBITDA from the filed accounts and multiply it by a number someone quoted at a trade show. A buyer's advisers will not price your business that way, and neither do we. The multiple is the last thing we set. It comes out of the work below and differs for every business, so we do not publish a typical range.

Before any multiple is applied, we test the business on:

Its defensible moat. What stops a rival from undercutting you at the next retender? Police-recognised installer approvals, SIA Approved Contractor status, monitoring contracts with a cost to switch, and site knowledge clients would have to rebuild with a new supplier.
The market around it. A PESTLE review of the pressures on its clients and its cost base, such as wage legislation, employer National Insurance, retail and commercial property activity, changes in police response policy, the move to remote video monitoring, and new licensing or business regulation.
Its competitive position. Porter's Five Forces applied to the business itself: the buying power of facilities management companies and large retail clients, the bargaining power of officers in a tight labour market, low barriers to entry in guarding, substitutes such as remote monitoring replacing static guards, and rivalry on price at every retender.
Its real competitive edge. The specific reason clients stay, and whether it lasts once the owner stops taking their calls.
Capital expenditure. The state of the vehicle fleet, the control room and monitoring platform, and the cost of migrating installed alarms to newer signalling as the old analogue lines are withdrawn.
Frameworks and contracts. Public sector frameworks, contract lengths, notice periods, wage pass-through clauses and renewal history, and how much of next year's revenue is already contracted.
Quality of earnings. Whether profits before a sale were flattered by under-accruing holiday pay, holding back officer training and licence renewals, or delaying vehicle and equipment replacement. Buyers test payroll records against contracts and they find these gaps.

Only then do we value the business three ways: on maintainable earnings, on a discounted cash flow of its own forecast, and on the net value of its assets. Where the methods disagree, the gap shows where a buyer will push.

On published multiples. BDO's Private Company Price Index put the average UK trade buyer multiple at 9.8 times EBITDA in Q3 2024, and 12.2 times for private equity (BDO, PCPI Q3 2024). Over the previous four years, the trade deals behind that index averaged an enterprise value of £14.5m (BDO, PCPI Q1 2024). An average built from larger businesses in every sector says nothing about your contract terms, your approvals or your wage exposure. We use such figures only as one cross-check against the result of the work above.

We value businesses up to £450m enterprise value. The fixed fees below cover businesses with turnover from £500k to £30m, and larger businesses are scoped on the discovery call.

The accounts

Where security services accounts mislead

Filed accounts for security companies hide several things a buyer's accountants will find. We correct for them before anyone else does.

Holiday pay accruals. An accrual based on basic hours understates the liability where officers work regular overtime. Profit looks higher than it is, and the shortfall becomes money owed at completion.
Monitoring and maintenance billed in advance. Annual contracts invoiced up front put cash in the bank before the work is done. Some buyers treat that deferred income as debt, which reduces the cheque you receive.
Installation profit recognised early. Where a large install is part complete at the year end, profit can be booked ahead of the work. We check the stage of completion against what the engineers have actually done.
Invoice finance hidden in creditors. Facilities management clients often pay on long terms, and invoice finance closes the gap. Buyers treat the drawn balance as debt in a cash-free, debt-free price.
Family on the payroll, or missing from it. A spouse paid for no role is added back. An owner who draws a low salary and takes dividends needs a market-rate manager costed in their place.
Subcontracted labour at year end. Hours bought in from other guarding companies to cover gaps can be under-accrued at the year end, flattering the margin on the contracts concerned.

The offer

The valuation, the fee and how to start

You receive a valuation memorandum, a written report and a locked Excel model, delivered in 2 working days. Mark Ross Roberts FMVA CBCA does the work himself. Nothing is passed to a junior analyst.

Annual turnover	Independent valuation	With funding feasibility
£500k to £5m	£1,200	£1,700
£5m to £10m	£2,000	£2,500
£10m to £30m	£3,000	£3,500
Above £30m	Scoped on the call	Scoped on the call

All fees exclude VAT. Funding feasibility adds the bank debt a lender is likely to advance against the business and tests deal structures on debt service cover, which matters if you are selling to a management team or buying a competitor.

How to start: email Mark at mark@achieve-corporation.com with a line on the business and what the valuation is for. You get a reply the same day, then a free discovery call that confirms the right report, the fee and the turnaround. Nothing is payable until you agree to go ahead.

Email Mark for a free discovery call

Questions owners ask

Frequently asked questions

I've had an offer for my security business. How do I know if it's fair?

Compare it with an independent valuation built from your own accounts, before you reply. The valuation shows what a buyer is likely to pay, how much of the headline reaches you after debt, holiday pay and working capital, and which parts of the offer are open to negotiation.

Is an independent valuation worth it if I already have a broker's figure?

A broker's figure is often given to win your instruction. An independent valuation has no stake in the number, shows every adjustment, and gives you something to test the broker's figure against. At a fixed fee from £1,200 excluding VAT, it costs less than one point off the multiple on almost any deal.

Will you try to sell me a sale mandate afterwards?

No. The valuation is a standalone engagement at a fixed fee, and you are under no obligation to instruct us for anything else. Most owners use the report to negotiate with a buyer they already have, or to plan their next few years.

How much is my security business worth?

There is no reliable rule of thumb. The value depends on how much of your revenue is contracted and recurring, whether your contracts let wage rises through, the approvals you hold, and whether recent profits are real once holiday pay and overtime are costed properly. A multiple of EBITDA comes at the end of that work, followed by deductions for debt and working capital at completion. Published averages describe larger, different businesses.

Is recurring monitoring revenue worth more than installation work?

Usually, yes, provided it is properly contracted. Buyers pay more for income that renews each year without selling, but they check the contract terms, the renewal history, whether the contracts can be assigned to a new owner, and who controls the alarm receiving centre connections. Monitoring on informal or rolling monthly terms is valued closer to one-off work.

Will the National Living Wage rise affect what my guarding business is worth?

It can. The National Living Wage rose 4.1% to £12.71 an hour from 1 April 2026 (GOV.UK, 2026). Where a contract lets you pass that increase on, the effect on earnings is small. Where it does not, the margin on that contract falls and a buyer prices the lower figure.

Do SIA Approved Contractor status and NSI approval increase the value?

Yes, mainly by protecting revenue you already have. Many clients and most larger buyers expect SIA Approved Contractor status, and police response to alarm systems depends on installers holding recognised approval such as NSI Gold or Silver. Losing or lacking them narrows the field of buyers and the work you can bid for.

Most of my contracts come through facilities management companies. Does that matter?

It affects both the price and the cash. Buyers look at how much of your work runs through each facilities manager and how easily it could move at retender. Long payment terms usually mean invoice finance, and the drawn balance is deducted from the price as debt.

How long does a valuation take?

Two working days from receiving your accounts and management information, at a fixed fee agreed before work starts.

Is the valuation confidential?

Yes. An NDA is available before you share any figures, and your staff, clients and suppliers are not contacted.

Sources:

Valuation guides: EBITDA analysis · Earnings multiples · Asset-based valuation · Discounted cash flow

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